- BJP to increase vote share, will it convert to seats is a question mark
- TRS to face jolt with decrease in number compared to 2016
- All depends upon voter turnout on polling day
Hyderabad: The highly electrifying, fiery battle between political parties is coming to an end in a few hours for GHMC elections. The hungama made in a short span of time by parties in the race, TRS and BJP, AIMIM, shocked everyone. Reasons are many like, war of words which hit rock bottom like ’surgical strike,’ terrorists, midterm elections by TBJP President Bandi Sanjay, galli leaders, calling PM as Tea seller by Telangana CM and other TRS leaders, Demolish PV, NTR samdhi’s, challenging PM to campaign in old city by AIMIM leaders are a few that can be quoted. Every political party has its own agenda when it goes into campaign keeping in view of its plans and strategies.
TRS losing momentum
The ruling party which won 99 seats in 2016 took a brave decision in going for elections two months earlier than the scheduled date. Reasons are many like loss in Dubbaka bypoll, anti-incumbency at grassroot level or due to unexpected floods which exposed the ruling party or the delay in development of city. They got ready to face the battle and took the decision within a week after Dubbaka debacle to go for election. They started the campaign with road shows with KTR spearheading the show. Meeting at LB stadium addressed by CM was a lacklustre show and the response was less than they expected. Even the body language of the leaders was not in a positive way which was seen in every election they fought earlier . There is no doubt that the sudden surge of saffron party made TRS nervous.
BJP aggressive after Dubbaka win
There is a clear josh in BJP after Dubbaka win and with the same speed and enthusiasm they jumped into campaign for GHMC. The campaign also ran in a planned way with guns aimed at both AIMIM and TRS. BJP certainly wanted to restrict AIMIM to their base, old city, without allowing them to spread to other parts of Hyderabad city. AIMIM won 5 seats in Bihar and was gearing up to contest in upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections in alliance with Trinamool Congress. BJP leaders know very well that chances for the party in Bengal are bright and don’t wish to allow parties like AIMIM to disrupt their dream. This might be one of the main reasons for Delhi leaders to campaign in an aggressive manner for a civic poll. Secondly, the party which is looking for expansion in South India wants to expand its footprints with the win in GHMC elections and then take over Telangana.
AIMIM under pressure
For the first time, AIMIM, monarch of old city bastion, is in shaky mood. They faced protests during campaign which never happened earlier , even the speech of Asauddin Owaisi requesting his community to stand united in crisis, shows how they are also facing anti-incumbency sentiment and feeling the pressure.
What opinion poll says
The first survey conducted before the release of TRS manifesto and Prior to BJP launching aggressive campaign by involving national leaders showed, neck to neck race between TRS and BJP. The second one is done after the campaign of national leaders for BJP (Union Home Minister Amit Shah is due for visit) and TRS huge meeting at LB Stadium. There is no change in the mindset of voters and not much impact was shown to favour to the ruling party due to the public meeting. Final predictions will stand with increase of votes and seats for the saffron party in major divisions with 3 districts coming into hands of BJP. The number of seats for TRS is expected to fall in a drastic manner and even AIMIM is set to see a loss in the number of seats which they got in 2016 elections.(The number is not mentioned as per election code)
The battle is not only for big city for parties, it is to maintain their future positioning; it is to expand its wings in South and to target states like West Bengal for another party. Will it be a ‘Bhagyanagar’as said by BJP or like KTR said it would not be the ‘name changer’, but the Game changer’ that would have the last laugh, will be known on Dec 4th on counting day.
In the last GHMC elections in 2016, the percentage of poll turnout was 45.27% and if the same (above 45%) happens on Dec 1st, it means more trouble for the ruling party.
(This Article has been reposted with permission from Primepost)